Closing line value (CLV)
How much better or worse your odds were than the final price before the game started, a key measure of betting skill.
The closing line is the last price a sportsbook offers before a game starts. By then the market has absorbed injury news, starting goalie confirmations and big bettors' money, so it is widely treated as the most accurate price available. Closing line value (CLV) compares the odds you took with that closing price.
Worked example
You bet a team at +140 (decimal 2.40) on the morning of the game. Once the starting goalies are confirmed, the line closes at +115 (2.15).
- CLV: 2.40 / 2.15 minus 1 = 11.6%.
- In implied probability terms, you paid for a 41.7% chance on a team the closing market rated at 46.5%.
Whether that single bet wins is noise. Beating the close by that kind of margin over hundreds of bets is a strong sign you are finding value.
Better: compare with the no-vig close
The closing price still includes the vig. For a sharper measure, strip the margin from both sides of the closing line first (see overround) and compare your price with the fair closing odds.
Why it matters
Results over a few weeks swing a lot. CLV shows earlier whether your process is sound. Sportsbooks track it too, and accounts that beat the close consistently can see their limits cut.