निहित संभावना

Every price can be turned into a percentage. That percentage is the implied probability: what the odds say the chance of an outcome is. If you think the true chance is higher than the implied one, the bet has value; if lower, it does not.

Formulas

• Decimal odds: 1 / odds.
• American odds, minus price: odds / (odds + 100), using the number without its sign.
• American odds, plus price: 100 / (odds + 100).

Worked example

An NHL game priced at Dallas -175, Nashville +155 (illustrative).

• Dallas: 175 / 275 = 63.64%.
• Nashville: 100 / 255 = 39.22%.
• Total: 102.85%. The 2.85% above 100 is the overround.

To get a no-margin estimate, scale each side down by the total: Dallas 63.64 / 102.85 = 61.9%, Nashville 38.1%.

Using it

Say you rate Nashville at 42% to win. The book's implied 39.22% is lower, so at +155 the bet has positive expected value: 0.42 × 1.55 minus 0.58 × 1 = +0.071, or about 7 cents per dollar staked. That is an estimate, not a promise; your 42% could be wrong.

Crypto note

Implied probability does not change with the currency. A price of 2.55 means the same thing whether you stake CAD, BTC or USDT.